Disclaimer 免責聲明

The views & opinions expressed are the dealers' own and they do not represent the views of UOBKH. The content is written in their personal capacity and is in no way related or associated to UOBKH. Please read disclaimer page here.

Ad

Wednesday, December 07, 2016

Asia Shipyard: Time to nibble end-Dec 16 as OPEC might walk the talk

My view:

Asia Shipyard Pick | Theme: Buy Asia Shipyard /Singapore OSVs end Dec 16 as OPEC production cut executes in Jan 17        
               
1.        Broadly, share price of Oil & Gas-related stocks have blipped up +5%-to-+10% from 1 Dec as OPEC members agree to cut production. Predictably, the upside momentum is lost as investors forget & looking at 1 Jan 17 to ascertain whether OPEC will walk the talk & execute these cuts (thus far, actual production had increased; which goes against the agreed production cuts).

2.        Assuming that OPEC members will execute their agreed production cuts (we have to take a bet here); I re-iterate that I would take a BUY position nearer end-Dec 16 when share price stabilise or even erode back to their recent end-Nov 16 lows..

3.        UOBKH Research upgrades to MARKET WEIGHT the Asia Shipyard sector.  OPEC's latest deal raises oil prices and lifts hope of a rebound in 2017. However, oil companies are likely to raise capex in 2018 at the earliest. Production orders take centre stage but these orders were roughly a quarter of total orders Singapore shipyards had secured in the last cycle. We revisit our valuations, and have pegged our P/B valuations to the yards' ROE. Updating our valuations, we find that Sembcorp Industries (SCI) remains the safest proxy to the protracted sector recovery.


UOB Kay Hian Research issued a report dated 7/12/16 on the above subject.  Please contact us for the full research analyst report.

Thanks & Regards

Any expression of trading idea found on this website is for sharing only and does not constitute an invitation to trade or investment advice. Please read disclaimer page here.

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Malaysia Alpha Picks in Dec | Destini (DSTN MK) /Ekovest (EKO MK) /Bumi Armada (BAB MK); side-underperform in Nov

My view:

Malaysia Alpha Picks | Theme: Malaysia Alpha Picks that have immediate Catalysts & Timeline

MY PICK:

1. Destini (DSTN MK) Px/Tgt MYR0.68/1.04

CONVICTION BUY:

1. Scientex (SCI MK) Px/Tgt MYR6.76/7.40
2. Ekovest (EKO MK) Px/Tgt MYR2.27/3.13

BUY:

1. BIMB (BIMB MK) Px/Tgt MYR4.26/4.40
2. Bumi Armada (BAB MK) Px/Tgt MYR0.56/0.92
3. Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) Px/Tgt MYR4.70/5.10
4. Kim Loong (KIML MK) Px/Tgt MYR3.47/4.20
5. Inari REIT (INRI MK) Px/Tgt MYR3.31/3.85

1. Share price performance has broadly been sideways with the exception of DSTN MK & BAB MK underperforming -20% over last one month as follows:

    (MYR)           Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec      %
a. DSTN MK     0.76     0.82     0.83      0.68     -18      Buy <65 sen
a. SCI MK         6.15     6.77     6.60      6.76     +2
b. BIMB MK     4.02     4.14     4.25      4.26     0
c. BAB MK       0.76     0.70     0.70      0.56     -20
d. EKO MK       1.84     1.92     2.25      2.27     +1

2. We continue to like EKO/BIMB/BAB.

Invest Stock -
www.facebook.com/investstock
Any expression of trading idea found on this website is for sharing only and does not constitute an invitation to trade or investment advice. Please read disclaimer page here.

Singapore Alpha Picks in Dec | LHN (LHN SP) /Bumitama (BAL SP) /China Aviation Oil (CAO SP); underperfrom in Nov

My view:

S'pore Aipha Picks | Theme: S'pore Alpha Picks that have immediate Catalysts & Timeline

MY PICK:

1. LHN (LHN SP) Px/Tgt SGD0.20/0.28 BUY < 19 cts

CONVICTION BUY:

1. Bumitama (BAL SP) Px/Tgt SGD0.78/1.25
2. China Aviation Oil (CAO SP) Px/Tgt SGD1.38/1.90 BUY <SGD1.30

BUY:

1. Duty Free Intl (DFIL SP) Px/Tgt SGD0.38/0.57
2. Keppel T&T (KPTT SP) Px/Tgt SGD1.66/2.36

CONVICTION SELL:

1. Starhub (STH SP) Px/Tgt SGD2.87/2.40

1. Share price performance has broadly been DOWN with the exception of our SELL STH SP (10% return) over last one month as follows:

    (SGD)        Sep      Oct      Nov     Dec      %
a. LHN SP     0.17     0.22     0.20     0.20      0      Buy <19 cts
b. BAL SP     0.72     0.72     0.73     0.78      +7
c. CAO SP    1.39      1.34     1.40     1.38      -1
d. DFIL SP    -           - 0.44   0.41     0.38      -7
e. KPTT SP   -           - 1.85   1.72     1.66      -4
f. STH SP      3.47     3.43     3.19      2.87     -10

2. We continue to like BAL/CAO/DFIL/KPTT.
 
 
Any expression of trading idea found on this website is for sharing only and does not constitute an invitation to trade or investment advice. Please read disclaimer page here

Friday, December 02, 2016

Singapore Offshore & Marine | Time to nibble as OPEC might walk the talk

My view:

Singapore Offshore & Marine pick | Theme : Buy end Dec 16 as OPEC production cut executes in Jan 17

1.        I am fed-up that Oil stocks have been in doldrums over the last 2 years since Sep 14. I reckon its time to start being a tad upbeat on this sector despite massive pushback by Investors & huge headwinds ahead. I would be a BUYER because I am assuming that OPEC members will walk the talk (they have not done so in the past....sigh):

        a.        Nov 16:                Broadly agree to cut some production
        b.        Jan 17:                Execution of these production cut

2.        Assuming that OPEC members will execute their agreed production cuts (we have to take a bet here); I would take a BUY position nearer end-Dec 16 when share price stabilise after +5-10% yesterday.

3.        UOBKH Research upgrades to MARKET WEIGHT the S'pore Offshore & Marine sector. OPEC has announced a deal that will see their production reduced by 1.2mbpd, effective Jan 17. The deal sets the stage for the oil market to reach an earlier balance in 2017. We expect the sector to remain a trading play, as we expect continued oil price volatility from factors that may cap or break current price levels. We re-run our P/B to Brent crude price regression and update valuations accordingly.
UOB Kay Hian Research issued a report dated 2/12/16 on the above subject.  Please contact us for the full research analyst report.
 
Thanks & Regards
Any expression of trading idea found on this website is for sharing only and does not constitute an invitation to trade or investment advice. Please read disclaimer page here.

Thursday, December 01, 2016

IFAST SP | Turnaround story with +30% upside

My View:

S'pore-Event-Driven-pick | iFAST (IFAST SP) Px/Tgt SGD0.83/1.06 (+30% upside) | Theme : Turnaround-Story

Share price tend:
1.        Nov 2014:        sgd 0.95                IPO
2.        May 2015:        sgd 1.60                High
3.        Dec 2016:        sgd 0.80                Low        
 
1.        UOBKH Research initiates coverage on  iFAST with a BUY recommendation and DCF-based target price of S$1.06. Our target price suggests an upside of 27.7%.

2.        iFAST is a cash generative business which enjoys a high level of recurring income. After several acquisitions and organic expansion, iFAST is now fully equipped with a complete suite of investment products to leverage on the Asia HNWI growth trajectory.

3.        While 2016 started off rocky due to sharp sell-off in the China/HK market and poor sentiment following Brexit, we are optimistic that 2017 will be a turnaround with 28% yoy earnings growth expected.

4.        Moreover, with a strong net cash position of S$23.5m, management has signaled their confidence with 2.7m share buybacks.

UOB Kay Hian Research issued a report dated 1/12/16 on the above subject.  Please contact us for the full research analyst report.

Any expression of trading idea found on this website is for sharing only and does not constitute an invitation to trade or investment advice. Please read disclaimer page here.

LHN SP | Conviction BUY S$0.20; Tgt S$0.28 by end 1Q17

My view:
Singapore Event Driven Pick | Theme: Conviction BUY at S$0.20 (Tgt S$0.28cts reduced from S$0.32) | LHN (LHN SP) Px/Tgt S$0.21/0.28 (+40% upside)

1.        I am a CONVICTION BUYER at 20cts. Target 28cts. Timeline end 1Q17 because:

        a.        PEG:        0.1x
        b.        PE 5x versus 40% organic EPS growth
        c.        Yield:        3.5%
        d.        Steady stock combining good yield & strong EPS growth
               
2.        Personally, I think LHN SP has the capacity to expand its current SGD72m market cap to above SGD150m (or doubling of share price because of strong EPS growth & PE expansion). This is a steady eddy stock which is likely to re-rate up albeit at a slower pace (over the next 3 months) from these catalysts:

        a.        Collaboration with new partners for LHN to manage their buildings for more accretive profit ahead
        b.        Expansion into the region with JV partners: more profit growth
        c.        M&A on new properties which is profit-accretive

3.        Risks:

        a.        Share price upside is a tad slow
        b.        Potential new investors will get bored with the pace of upside

4.        Share price has broadly done sideways at 21cts:

        a.        Apr 15:                23cts                IPO
        b.        Aug 16:                14cts
        c.        Sep 16:                25cts
        d.        Dec 16:                21cts
        e.        1Q17:                28cts                our expectation

5.        UOBKH Research maintain BUY with a reduced target price of S$0.28 (from S$0.32). LHN will see strong contributions streaming from its recent acquisitions, with the Ang Mo Kio property alone potentially generating S$6m in annual revenues in a steady state. It is in a niche market of providing bite-sized spaces and is unaffected by tighter JTC subletting rules unlike industrial REITs. Their margins are relatively defensive in the soft industrial market.
 
UOB Kay Hian Research issued a report dated 1/12/16 on the above subject.  Please contact us for the full research analyst report.
 
Thanks & Regards
Any expression of trading idea found on this website is for sharing only and does not constitute an invitation to trade or investment advice. Please read disclaimer page here.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Destini Bhd (DSTN MK) | Collapsed -30% from high; time to BUY with MYR1.04

My view:

Malaysia MRO Pick | Theme : BUY-mearer-60sen-post-30%-collapse

BUY:
1.        Destini Bhd (DSTN MK) Px/Tgt MYR0.63/1.04                

1.        Destini (DSTN MK)'s share price collapsed -30% from 84sen to 63sen because:

        a.        3Q16 results at net profit MYR4M were way below consensus expectation of MYR9M
        b.        Channel checking, it was indicated that it is a profit-booking issue
        c.        the outstanding net profit recognition will likely be in 4Q17

2.        I would be a CONVICTION BUYER nearer 60sen because:

        a.        Very attractive valuation when the KTM & AMMROC projects kick-in
        b.        Valuations are attractive at 63sen:
                                                EPS                PE
                i.        2016E                        4 sen                16x
                ii.        2017F                        9 sen                7x
                iii.        2018F                        11 sen                6x

3.        UOBKH Research has a BUY with a higher target price of RM1.04. Management is encouraged by the prospect of securing close to RM1.7B worth of new contracts for its marine and rail divisions. Clinching these contracts could provide a sizeable boost to its existing orderbook and provide a significant earnings rerating to the stock. Meanwhile, there are encouraging developments at the aviation division as management aims to finalise the long-delayed strategic alliance with AMMROC by early-17. And massive orderbook from the likely KTM project.

Any expression of trading idea found on this website is for sharing only and does not constitute an invitation to trade or investment advice. Please read disclaimer page here.

LHN SP | Conviction BUY S$0.21, net profit up +270%

LHN (LHN SP) Px/Tgt SGD0.21/0.32 (+60% upside)

My View:

S'pore-Event-Driven-pick | Conviction-BUY-at-21cts
Theme: Conviction BUYER at 21cts. Target 32cts
1.        Share price has broadly done sideways at 21cts:

        a.        Apr 15:                23cts                IPO
        a.        Aug 16:                14cts
        b.        Sep 16:                25cts
        c.        Nov 16:                21cts  

2.        LHN just came out with excellent 2016 full-year results:

        a.        Sep 2015:                SGD 4 million
        b.        Sep 2016:                SGD 15 million

3.        We will update you with a full report soon.

4.        I would be a CONVICTION BUYER now at 21cts

 
Any expression of trading idea found on this website is for sharing only and does not constitute an invitation to trade or investment advice. Please read disclaimer page here.