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Straits Times 5/9/2012



























Biz Daily 31/08/2012 
The Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS) successfully held the inaugural Singapore Investment Week 2012 (SIW 2012) which kicked off August 25 and ended Friday, August 31.
The week-long campaign presented a series of investment seminars, online video interviews and investment workshops on topics ranging from the basics of money management to investing in stocks and protection products like insurance.
Some of the prominent speakers featured included Mu Quek Siong, associate director of UOB Kay Hian; Hon Cheung, regional director at State Street Global Advisors; Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB Research and Tay Boon Hwee, chief executive officer of Ascott Residence Trust.
The opening events last weekend were attended by a capacity-full crowd. Near to 2,500 participants attended the 2-day free investment seminars held August 25 and 26 at the NTUC auditorium.
In addition, more than 2,000 people signed up for the investment workshops held from 27 to 31 August that featured different investment themes such as value investing in today’s investment climate, investment trend and market outlook, developing passive income stream from investment and investment and savings cover for retirement.
From the feedback gathered, many participants found the seminars informative and very useful. In addition, many companies were delighted to have sponsored the event.
“The event was a huge success as a platform for us to reach out to new and existing customers and update investors on market trends and opportunities in the investment scene. Through the sessions conducted by our investment advisors, we hope we have helped create greater awareness on the options available to investors so that they can make more informed decisions,” said Delicia Loh, Head, Non Flow Products, Singapore and Southeast Asia, Standard Chartered Bank.
Meanwhile, German property developer Dolphin Capital GmbH presented an option for investors to look at opportunities in Germany’s property market. The group recently established Dolphin Capital Asia to make very niche and reliable German real estate projects available to investors all around Asia.
“Being the first company in Asia to offer German real estate investments, Singapore Investment Week 2012 was an ideal platform for us to educate investors on our niche offering. Given that Singapore’s investment climate has become more sophisticated and mature, investors are looking to gain greater knowledge of alternative investment strategies,” said Vicknesh Pillay, managing director at Dolphin Capital Asia.
Here are some of the snapshots of the events that took place last weekend.

Channel News Asia 23/8/2012
SINGAPORE: Singapore Exchange CEO Magnus Bocker said he expects a few big ticket initial public offerings (IPOs) to come into Singapore for the rest of 2012.
These listings are expected to come from local and regional companies.
Mr Bocker was speaking at the sidelines of an investment week launch to educate retail investors.
He said well-subscribed initial public offerings in July and August are encouraging more companies to list.
But market sentiment in the second half of the year will still be driven by events in Europe and the US.
And the listing of new IPOs are all a question of timing.
When asked if SGX will be able to surpass the success of the Malaysian bourse, Mr Bocker said he is happy with Bursa Malaysia's two big IPOs this year (Felda and IHH Healthcare), which have attracted investors to come into the market - especially for retail and long-term investors.
Mr Bocker said: "We see there are a lot of... regional and local companies of very good size that need to come to the market to raise funds for their investments, for growing and for creating jobs which is really why we are here.
"And that goes for both Singaporean companies as well as the regional ones, whether it's Indonesia where we've had some companies from."
Robson Lee, partner at law firm Shooklin & Bok, believes the resurgence in interest for IPOs is a result of good earnings expectations from companies.
"Some of these companies envisage they would have a good set of results this year. It takes six to nine months to prepare (for an IPO), so it would be a good time now for them to start the preparation, in case the market picks up, they are ready to go," he said.
These firms are likely to come from sectors such as minerals and resources, property and construction, and food and beverage, Mr Lee added.
Meanwhile, the Securities Investors Association (Singapore) launched the first Singapore Investment Week from August 25 to 31 and has lined up seminars and workshops to educate retail investors.
Experts from banking, brokerage and investment firms are slated to speak on the basics of stock trading, investment products, investment tools and the market outlook.
These seminars will be held in various locations like the SGX Auditorium, the MND Auditorium and UOB Kay Hian's Investor Centres in Jurong East and Bedok.
David Gerald, president and CEO of Securities Investors Association (Singapore), said: "This whole campaign is about bringing the message: Learn how to invest. Do not invest if you do not know anything about investment. And if you don't want to know anything about investment, walk away."

Biz Daily 22/08/2012
In the wake of MF Global collapse, pure vanilla brokerages have suffered a blow to their business, with customers’ confidence shifting to houses with direct links to banks, benefiting brokerages such as UOB Kay Hian.
Nonetheless, the local brokerage house has not been sitting on its laurels. It has been beefing up its capacities in providing high quality research and good coverage of Singapore-listed companies and regional markets.
Further, trading-wise, its platforms provide fundamental analysis (FA) tools such as ShareXplorer and technical analysis (TA) instruments like TechAnalyser to assist clients in making informed decisions before their trades.
Moreover, its services do not stop there.
UOB Kay Hian regularly conducts educational courses and seminars and networking sessions so that clients can learn how to become savvy investors.
“Our personalised coaching and advisory services provide valuable information in assisting clients to make better investment decisions,” the brokerage house told Biz Daily.
In line with this, UOB Kay Hian will join hands with the Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS) for the inaugural Singapore Investment Week which will run between August 25 and 31.
Open to both SIAS members and public, the week-long campaign will include a series of investment seminars, online videos and radio programmes, featuring topics ranging from the basics of money management to investing in stocks and shares.
For starters, here’s a little tip from UOB Kay Hian.
“Novice Investors should start with blue-chip counters and begin with a focus either on yield or capital appreciation. When looking for dividend yield, clients can focus on the past dividend distribution history. When looking for capital appreciation, clients can look at the price-earnings ratio and the growth potential of the company by looking for low price/earnings to growth (PEG) ratio, low price-book (PB) ratio and high return on equity (ROE),” it said.
“They can utilise the ShareXplorer feature in the UTRADE website to gain an insight on the financial health and performance of listed companies,” added UOB Kay Hian.
Further, the brokerage house also believes that as retail investors get more sophisticated, their preference for plain equity might shift to derivatives like warrants, futures and options to better capture market movements and make full use of leverage or hedging instruments, which are also tradable on its platform.
“Going forward, brokers will have to focus on providing better service, timely information and educating the investors through investment seminars, personalised coaching & FA/TA analysis tools. These are value-added services that investors in the modern society are looking for,” said UOB Kay Hian.
For more information on the Singapore Investment Week 2012, please visit www.sias.org.sg/siw2012.

我報 17/6/2009
迹象显示,IPO市场最糟的时刻已过去,专家普遍看好今年下半年的IPO市场。
由美国住宅市场泡沫破裂引发的次贷危机(sub-prime crisis),去年迅速演变成一场全球金融海啸,冲垮本地首次公开售股(IPO)市场。
去年股市大跌,公司纷纷延迟上市计划,结果共有17个IPO计划被取消。今年以来IPO市场仍持续低迷,至今只有3个小规模IPO。
然而海峡指数(STI)自今年3月9日触底反弹,目前已上涨64%,让不少公司和业者又见IPO曙光。
美林(Merrill Lynch)新加坡和马来西亚投资银行董事经理Keith Magnus近日表示,股市回弹会吸引公司重新回到资本市场,市场环境变得更加稳定,本地今年预计会有至少一宗大规模的IPO,集资规模可能超过$1 billion。
此外,刚挂牌的新股也开始有亮眼的表现。刚在本月4日上市的得和(Teho International)在交易首日闭市报$0.315,比公开发售时的$0.24高出整整31%。
种种迹象显示,IPO市场最糟的时刻似乎已经过去。
市场正常化要等明年
专家普遍看好今年下半年的IPO市场,但由于上市一般需要1年的准备期,更多公司上市集资的情况可能要到明年才会看见。
辉立证券(Phillips Securities)辉立市(Poems)交易部门主管巫国雄受访时说,金融海啸发生至今,本地IPO市场一蹶不振,目前的情况为10年来最糟。今年的3个IPO总共只筹得$16.8 million,比去年同期猛跌98%。
大华银行(UOB)投资银行企业融资董事总经理邝俊文也说,金融危机造成股市动荡,波动幅度大,过去18个月,新股在交易中受挫,表现都“跑输大市”。投资者需要一些时间走出投资失利的阴影。
但他也观察到,最近一些公司发行新股票(即附加股rights issue)给现有股东认购,获得热烈反应,多少看出投资者已重拾信心。如果配售附加股集资的热潮持续旺热,IPO市场将随着复苏。
但邝俊文认为,现在认定IPO市场已回暖还言之过早。他说,Teho International发售规模小,发售价只有PE(本益比)的3倍,这样的低价位很容易售卖。
巫国雄指出,当投资者对股市更乐观,预料新股交易首日会上扬,认购率(subscription rate)也会增加。他预料,今年下半年的情况会比上半年好,但上市的准备期长达1年,本地市场的IPO数量与规模最早也要等到明年才会趋向正常化。
投资者仍须谨慎行事
专家也认为,要掀起前两三年的认购热潮有一定的困难,投资者必须谨慎行事。
邝俊文指出,除非上市的新股规模小,价位低,否则目前的股票市场仍不适合IPO新股上市。投资者应仔细阅读新股的招股书(prospectus)内容,了解上市公司的营运情况,并将它的估价与同行作比较后才决定是否认购。
他本身较看好海事、石油与天然气服务(oil & gas services)、建筑以及基础设施相关领域IPO。医疗保健、博彩和教育等防御性领域IPO,投资者也会感兴趣。
巫国雄则认为,前些日子不少龙筹股(S-chips)公司爆出财务丑闻或无法偿还债务,令龙筹股声誉大受打击,但在这轮全球经济衰退中,中国将最先走出阴影,因此不排除接下来在本地的IPO中仍将有很多中国企业,但这也可能冲击投资者对IPO市场信心的恢复。
他建议投资者,若想认购新股,应尽量选择PE、市净率 (PB)、负债率较低,以及现金流和盈利率(profit margin)较高的公司。公司产品的市场潜力、完善管理和企业监管(corporate governance)等也应是投资者的考量。

Channel News Asia 3/3/2008
Posted: 03 March 2008 1935 hrs
SINGAPORE : A bidding war between two of Singapore's most famous corporate families has come to an end, but not without a final climax. Insurer Great Eastern Holdings says it will sell its shares in Straits Trading to Tecity, which is controlled by the family of the late Tan Chin Tuan. On Sunday, the Lee family, the main shareholder of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, pulled out of the race for Straits Trading, saying it would accept the S$6.70 per share offer from Tecity. Analysts say minority investors should seriously consider cashing out at this price too. The corporate drama that had investors glued to mainboard-listed Straits Trading's share price has drawn to a close. Citing market volatility, the Lee family chose not to make a counter-bid and instead took up the Tans' offer of S$6.70 a share. But pushing this unfolding spectacle into a new peak is Great Eastern, whose move to sell its shares in Straits Trading tipped the scales over to Tecity's way. The Tan family owns about 26 percent of Straits Trading. The decision by the Lee Family and Great Eastern will give it an additional stake of about 27 percent. And that would give the Tan family control of Straits Trading, allowing them to unlock whatever potential it sees by playing an active role in the board. It has, however, made clear in its offer document that the component of the management team will be untouched. All eyes are now on another key shareholder, OCBC. At its latest results briefing, OCBC said it was considering the Tecity offer. Shares in Straits Trading have been gaining, thanks to the bidding war. Mu Quek Siong, Head, POEMS Dealing Team, Phillip Securities, said: "For minority shareholders, yes it's good news. Because if you look at Straits Trading prices from 1989 until now, this is quite far away from their prices. "All the way from 1989 to 2006, 2005 they have been trading at below S$3.50 level. These two years we have seen exponential gains at S$6.70. This is a good chance for minority shareholders to exit at this price. The next thing we might want to ask the management is how you unlock the share value of this company." The offer from the Lee family values the commodities and property firm at S$2.18 billion. On Monday, Straits Trading's shares closed unchanged at S$6.70. In a statement released to the SGX late on Monday, Tecity said it has as at 5pm on March 3 garnered control of a 41.11 percent stake in Straits Trading. This takes it past the 30 percent threshold at which the offer becomes mandatory. The offer is still conditional on getting a 50 percent control. - CNA/ch

联合早报 4/2/2008
Posted on 2008年02月4日 by chaindingcn
由于本周为庆农历新年仅有两个半交易日,本地股市的成交量料会相当低,预计海指将在2600与3200点之间波动。  辉立证券(Phillip Securities)资深交易员巫国雄对本报发表了以上看法。微软提议收购雅虎改变美国市场情绪  美国上周五公布的数据显示雇主在1月份所支付的工资四年半以来首次减少,为美国经济的衰退走势提供又一个证据。本以为美国股市上周五会应声大跌,没想到微软(Microsoft)宣布的一项收购却大大改变了市场情绪。微软提议以446亿美元收购雅虎(Yahoo)股份,收购价格较雅虎当时的股价高出62%。投资者因此认为蓝筹股变得便宜了。  道琼斯工商指数上周五闭市报12743.19点,全周共起4.4%。标准普尔500指数报1395.42点,全周共涨4.9%。这两个指数上周的表现都是2003年以来最好的一周表现。而以科技股为主的纽约自动报价股市全周上扬3.8%至2413.36点,为约18个月来最大一周涨幅。  尽管美国各指数上周齐齐飙升,亚洲股市却跌声连连。除了香港恒生指数大跌近1000点外,本地股市也跌4.8%,上周五闭市报3007.80点。巫国雄指出,尽管蓝筹股的价格已相当低,投资者却仍然担心会有更多的坏消息接踵而来。  城市发展上周的跌幅最大,共挫1.38元至11.50元。花旗集团将其目标价调降至13.41元,给予“持有”评级。  STX泛洋上周逆势上扬14分至2.64元,成交量高达1亿1377万股。波罗海贸易海运交易所(Baltic Exchange)的海干散货运费指数(Dry Freight Index)在近一个月的跌势后,终于在上周三有所回弹。 美国商务部(Commerce Department)将于今日公布非耐久(non-durable)商品12月份的新订单,预计自11月份的1.5%增长加速至2.5%。美国供应管理协会(Institute for Supply Management)则将于明日公布1月份的非制造指数。路透社对几名经济师做出的调查预测该指数将自12月份的54.4降至53。美国除金融业外其他行业业绩良好  本周四,投资者的注意力将放在就业市场。美国一周的失业人数料将自前周的37万5000人减至上周的34万5000人。随着去年第四季业绩的公布接近尾声,分析师指出除了金融业以外,其他行业至今公布的业绩都保持在相当良好的水平。  新闻集团(News Corp)将于今天发布业绩,明天则有泰科国际(Tyco International)与沃尔特·迪斯尼(Walt Disney)。阿特纳(Aetna)、Biogen Idec Inc与思科(Cisco Systems Inc)将于周三发布。其中,思科的业绩将备受关注,因它将为企业今年的科技花费与美国的经济概况做出指引。

联合早报 23/12/2007
林诗慧(2007-12-23)
  本地市场普遍流行一种看法:到中国投资,等于为公司镀金,公 司股价一定上涨!
  中国确是新加坡最热门的投资地点。本地中国大使馆的数据显示 :我国到中国今年首三季投资项目有812个,外商直接投资(FDI)额 达19亿4000万美元(约28亿2423万新元)。累积的外商直接投资额达 319亿4000万美元,共计1万6368个项目,使新加坡成为中国的第五大 投资者。但到中国投资,是否能够使本地上市公司的股价上涨?
  巫国雄:公司有竞争优势就有帮助
  在中国投资对股价上涨有帮助,但该公司必须有竞争优势或特长 及很好的投资理由。
  这个说法普遍上是准确的。由于生产费用较低,市场也非常大, 中国无论对制造商或服务业公司来说都是投资的好地方。这也是市场 的普遍认知,因而在中国有投资项目,基本上应该对股价上涨有所帮 助。
  事实上,在本地上市的绝大部分公司都在中国有业务。当他们宣 布中国相关投资事项时,股价往往有所波动,主要因投机分子所形成 。不过,由于投资的影响力是长期的,因而我们有时很难确定股价短 期的上涨真的是因为投资所造成的。另外,投资的大小也是关键所在 。
  一些中国投资有助于本地上市公司股价上涨的例子不少,例如: 辉联配运(Freight Links)自2004年在中国投资,今年5月在江苏成 立合资企业,预计还会到厦门发展另一个合资企业。因为这一系列中 国投资,不少投资者开始买进其股票。又如:卡普兰基金管理( Kaplan Funds Management)就以每股10分收购辉联配运1亿8000万新 股。尽管它目前价格并不很理想,该股长期的发展仍被看好。
  前称为“一力”(Ace Dynamics)的安全器材生产商“励登”( Leeden),也有一套中国投资策略,从上海出发,预计于2010年拓展 至大连,2012年拓展至广州。它明显视中国为增长动力,并预期中国 业务占集团营收的比例在2010年会增加两倍。该股自今年6月中旬的 19分已升至目前的52分左右。
  当然,到中国投资也有失败的例子,对于股价难免造成负面影响 。比如:本地挂牌投资公司杰俐(Rowsley),月前放弃被中国太阳 能产品厂商沛辉投资(Perfect Field Investment)倒置收购的计划 。刚开始宣布计划时股价的确受到一定的正面影响,告吹后却即刻下 滑。
  因而,投资的可行度非常重要。要在中国投资,首先要有竞争优 势或特长,并有很好的投资理由。中国的法律框架并不那么完善,很 多时候需要与当地公司创立合资企业。但当地伙伴有时并不太积极, 投资最终可能失败。另外,中国市场非常具竞争力,到中国投资的公 司必须确定其产品能够抵抗竞争。
   中国目前还是新加坡投资者排名第一、最重要的市场。尽管如此 ,目前很多投资者正在寻找下一个投资旺地,因中国股市泡沫不知何 时引爆,相信或多或少会牵连在中国有投资的本地上市公司。现今很 多投资者正视越南为下一个增长引擎。
  ——辉立证券(Phillip Securities)资深交易员巫国雄
  郭新生:股价仍视公司的基本面
  公司的股票因我们在中国有业务而被不少机构基金认购,所以我 认为,到中国投资一定程度促使股价上涨。无论如何,公司的基本面 仍然非常重要,例如管理层的领导能力、产业的情况与风险等。
  近几个月来,不少在中国投资的本地上市公司业务不尽理想。那 是因为他们在中国生产的产品大多销售至海外,虽然营运费用以人民 币计算,销售额却以美元计算,若没有恰当处理外汇相关事宜,便很 可能造成损失。我们的总部费用一般以新元计算,问题不大。
  公司1989年已进军中国市场,1991年开始业务,2004与2005年在 上海与香港成立子公司,并在北京设立办事处。其伙伴包括中国三大 石油与天然气公司:中海石油炼化责任有限公司(CNOOC)、中国石 化国际事业有限公司(SINOPEC)及中国石油天然气股份有限公司( PETROCHINA)。
  除了美国与欧洲,另一个能够带动全世界经济的大市场便是中国 。5至10年前,很多海外公司希望打进中国市场。近两年的局势则是 中国公司希望到外地投资大公司。我们长期以来与中国伙伴们一同成 长,近期也和他们进军国际市场如印度与印尼。
  我们不只是投资中国市场,也投资全球市场。事实上,石油与天 然气业在全球各地的发展都非常快速,但也面临提炼设施的短缺。今 年初至今的油价便因需求比供应大而不断上涨。中国石油市场仍缺乏 先进的设施,相信未来10至20年还有很大的发展空间。
  尽管中国业务占集团业务的比例自去年的70至75%,减至今年的 60%,主要是因为集团进军中东与印度等市场,未来10年并不会停止 到中国投资。集团正在南部寻找商机,预计明年在广东或广西设立一 销售与工程基地。
  ——爱文思控股(Advanced Holdings)财务总监郭新生
  李福华:若投资成功 有助股价上涨
  到中国投资虽和股价上涨没直接的关系,但如果公司在中国的投 资成功,便能为股东带来回报,而有效率的市场自然会在股价上如实 反映。我认为,若公司在中国投资取得成功,对股价会有间接帮助。
  敏华控股于2005年在本地上市。在中国业务方面,集团现财年上 半年的销售额猛涨142.6%至1亿1040万港元(约2068万新元),主要 因自己的沙发品牌“芝华仕”(CHEERS)知名度的提升,在9月份荣 获“中国名牌奖”,为获得此奖的八家中国沙发制造商之一。
  集团在中国的投资可分为两方面。第一方面是在中国设有两个生 产设施,分别有15年地契,一个是1999年在深圳购得,另一个则是 2005年于徽州购得。后者第二期建设将于今年底完工,预计将集团一 年的沙发产量增至30万3000台。这方面的投资价值已大大提升。当时 徽州的生产设施每平方米是133元人民币(约26新元),如今标价已 涨至300元人民币(约60新元)。集团并不因此而打算脱售。
  集团在中国的另一项投资是零售网络,目前在中国拥有170家 “ 芝华仕”专卖店,预计在现财年底增至至少220家。
  十年前,不是每个中国人都想过拥有自己的房子。今非昔比,他 们不但拥有房子,房子还越来越大。中等收入阶层也日趋增长,都有 助于增加沙发家具品的需求。
  尽管近期冒出不少新兴市场,敏华控股还是会往中国投资。中国 目前的国内生产总值取得双位数增长,如此强劲的增长潜能无法忽视 ,关键是找出如何从取得最多的收益。
  ——敏华控股(Man Wah Holdings)财务董事李福华
  蓝伟光:两者并无必然联系
  到中国投资和公司股价的上涨没有必然联系。中国虽有很多机会 ,但也有很多陷阱。我认为必须考量该公司到中国投资的是什么项目 ,对的投资才会为股东取得好的回报。另外,到中国投资已不再是新 鲜事,相信大部分的上市公司在中国都有业务。难不成所有公司的股 价只升不跌?
  新达科技2003年在本地上市。其在中国的全资子公司三达膜( Suntar Membrane),在中国经历十年的创业与发展,已成为集团的 核心与旗舰企业。2004年集团收购了赤霉酸生产厂家江西瑞丰生物有 限公司(Reyphon Agriceutical),利用新达科技的技术、人才和资 金等优势,为新公司实现工艺优化、技术提升与利润增长等。
  瑞丰生物今年也在新加坡主板上市,成为江西第一家在新加坡上 市的公司。此外,新达科技在中国江苏、吉林、山东、陕西、河南、 湖北等多个省市也有自己的生物化工基地或污水处理厂。
  近三到五年内,中国的确提供很多机会,但是否为最好的投资地 却见仁见智。取得盈利的公司必定说好,亏本的当然不好意思这么说 。无论如何,中国人口多达13亿,这样庞大的市场的确不容忽视。本 公司依然看好中国的机会。由于它还有10至20年的增长空间,我们希 望能够在这个庞大的市场分得一杯羹。我们也不排斥其他市场,在德 国也有投资。无论如何,中国对我们来说还是相对熟悉的市场。
  总的来说,到中国投资对公司股价的上涨并不是很有帮助。即使 股价上涨,也无法确定是因为到中国投资。最关键的因素还是公司的 业务模式和基本面。是金子,总会发光!
  ——新达科技集团(Sinomem Technology)董事主席蓝伟光
《联合早报》
(编辑:黄秀茱)

联合早报 29/05/2007
http://www.stockstar.com/ 2007-5-29 9:50:00 杨永欣,黎远漪 
联合早报 新加坡股市的猛牛后劲十足,未来相信还会维持稳健上扬的趋势,在2008年年中前,海峡指数(STI)更预计会突破4000点大关。  辉立证券(Phillip Securities)资深交易员巫国雄以"本地股市接下来何去何从"为题,表达了他对本地股市的信心。  他说,海指近期屡创新高,导致一些投资者担心,股市持续上扬的趋势可能只是泡沫,随时会被击破。针对这一点,巫国雄认为,目前市场上的基本因素和技术因素都显示,这一回的牛市真材实料,因此有理由相信,本地股市在未来还会维持稳健上扬的趋势。  在基本因素方面,巫国雄说,新加坡目前的经济基础稳定、未来的经济展望良好,贸工部不久前就把2007年度的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率预测从原本的4.5%至6.5%,提高到5%至7%。  他也表示,股市是国家经济的前瞻性指标,反映未来6至9个月的经济情况。既然市场一般上都看好新加坡经济未来的展望,本地股市的表现自然也不会逊色。  本益比仍偏低  至于技术因素,新加坡股市目前的市场本益比(PE Ratio)为14.5倍,显示了新加坡股市仍有成长的空间。巫国雄说:"若比较其他的市场本益比,美国为18倍、香港18倍、中国44倍、马来西亚17倍、台湾19倍、日本37倍、以及英国17倍,14.5倍其实是个较低的数字。"  另一个判断牛市是虚或实的技术因素是成交量的活跃性。一般上,若指数上扬时成交量也上升,那么,牛市应能持续下去,但若指数上扬时却碰到成交量下跌,未来展望就不这么乐观。巫国雄指出,统计数字显示,在新加坡股市在持续攀升的同时,其成交量一直都维持在相当高的水平。  "当然,股市里时不时会有大幅度的下调期,这些下调期可长达两个星期之久,因此尽管牛市预计会持续下去,那些进行短期对敲活动的投资者仍需非常小心。"  巫国雄说,根据辉立证券的预测,海峡指数在2008年年中前,预计会突破4000点大关,因此他建议那些长期投资者趁下调购入优质蓝筹股,或买进海指基金(STI ETF)。  "坦白说,4000点是个较保守的预测,我们的看法是,上涨的空间还有25%。也就是说,以目前3500多点的水平来计算,它(海指)其实是可以比4000点还要出色的。"  巫国雄在讲座上也谈到中国和美国股市的现状。  对中国股市态度谨慎  对于中国股市,巫国雄持较谨慎的态度。他说,中国股市在过去一年内上涨了163%,市场本益比目前已达到44倍的高水平,表露了泡沫市场的迹象。  他说:"虽然中国股市有强劲的经济体为后盾,但之前的涨势太猛,市场仍未有时间作出适当的调整和消化。除此之外,中国股市里的散户较多,他们对股市运作的了解并不全面,多数股民只会跟风买进,顽固认为或期望股票只涨不会跌。"  以上的情况都显示中国股市其实并不稳固,风险较大。尽管如此,巫国雄仍认为,在2008年奥运之前,也就是未来一年内,中国股市里还有一些投资机会,不过,投资者在入场前需额外谨慎。"我相信在2008年8月之前,中国股市的监管机构也不会有太大的动作,最多只是小警告、或小调整。"  美国股市应有作为  巫国雄在分析美国股市时则表示,在2008年11月的美国总统选举前,美国股市应该还会有一番作为。这除了是大选年股市一般表现良好的理论外,一些其他客观因素也支持着美国股市继续上扬。  巫国雄指出,美国股市的市场本益比目前为18倍,还有成长空间,不但如此,美国大机构的盈利表现良好,通货膨胀也受到联储局(Federal Reserve Bank)的控制,暂无加息的威胁。或许唯一的隐忧是过度借贷的美国消费者紧缩开销后,会影响他国的经济。(证券之星编辑整理)

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